A set against a big draw
May 8, 2008By: PokerPeaker THE SITUATION -
I'm playing with a full stack at Bodog Poker at a $.10/.25 NL table. I'm dealt 5-5 and I'm sitting one off the button. Someone in front of me raises to .50, a minimum raise, and another guy in front of me raises to .75. This is a strange raise, almost an annoyance raise. There's a third caller, and so I call, hoping to flop a set and hoping that the first guy to act doesn't raise him all-in.
WHY DID I DO WHAT I DID HERE?
Flopping a set is the most profitable play you can make in poker. People have a hard time getting away from over pairs, for instance, and it's quite possible someone has one. After all, a lot of people are showing interest in their hands. It's my belief that if I get lucky, I'll get paid off, big-time. The last guy to act just calls, so my gamble pays off.
The flop comes J♥-K♥-5♦. Yippie!
And yet in my excitement, I've forgotten to take a hard look at the board. That hurts me later.
The initial raiser checks. I bet $2 because it's a draw heavy board, and I think he has A-K, so he'll likely call.
The second player raises to $4. I raise to $6 because there are too many draws out there, and I'm happy to take down the pot.
Plus I just want to see what the other players would do. I think this hand is really interesting.
The fourth player pushes all-in.
WOW!
I've got dollar signs going off in my head. And I push.
WHAT MISTAKE DID I MAKE HERE
Before we take a look at this hand, it's debatable I made any mistake. I had a set, and if you go through life not ever folding your sets, you'll still make money on most of them.
But the great players know when they're beat, even when they are holding a huge hand like a set, and even when it's not super-obvious that your set is beat, like on a flush or straight board. But I still could have folded it.
Here's why.
When you're trying to figure out if you're beat in a hand, a player's actions pre-flop may be the best key. In this case, there was a raise and a re-raise pre-flop, and that usually indicates a high pocket pair. It's quite possible that the first guy would have K-K and the second guy would have J-J or K-K. So I could be beat here.
Still, I shoved, because I put one on a big pair - wouldn't he try to milk me rather than push me off the hand with a higher set? - and I had the others on a draw.
It turns out I was right. And yet I was way behind. Even though I had the best hand at the moment, I was way behind.
They had J♣-5♣ of clubs, the other re-raiser had K♦- J♠and the guy who won the pot had Q♥-10♥.
Let's take a look at www.pokerstove.com to see where I was in the hand after the flop when I pushed all my chips in the middle.
• J♣-5♣ is 0 percent to win at the flop. Ouch. Two pair and he's drawing completely dead.
• The guy with K♦-J♠ is 13 percent to win at the flop.
• A pair of 5s is 30 percent to win at the flop.
• Q♥-10♥, however, is 46 percent to win.
I'm more than a 3-1 dog to win. I'm crushed, in other words, even if I have the best hand at the moment. Sure enough, I couldn't see the other hands at the time, but I figured I was dead when the 9♥ fell on the turn. I was right.
WHAT DID I LEARN FROM THIS?
I love sets. I really do. I've made more money on sets, by far, than any other hand.
And sometimes you just lose money. There was no way for me to know that the guy had an uber-draw and that I was far behind.
But I could have looked at the action and possibly looked for more information instead of just shoving in my chips.
Let's look at the pre-flop action. There was a raise and a re-raise and then, after my third re-raise, a push all-in. Given the action after the flop, it's entirely possible I was beaten by a higher set. That's showing incredible strength there. If I wasn't behind, I had to think I was against a pretty big draw at the very least, and possibly two, which meant I was behind anyway.
Even so, while I should have paused before stuffing my chips in the center, my opponent with the big draw did the right thing.
You shouldn't be afraid to shove your chips into the middle with a monster draw like the final player had. You're ahead if you have one even, if you need another card to make your hand. He knew the percentages and, as a result, won a monster pot.
